Showing posts with label College Cost Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Cost Inflation. Show all posts

Friday, August 14, 2009

Thoughts About The Education Bubble



As people crow about Pittsburgh's bulletproof economy built around "Eds & Meds", (we are still losing jobs) It might be good to take a hard look at how well these "industries" really are doing and the danger our dependence on them might mean.

Of course, people need to go to school and people need healthcare, but the fact is that people need a lot of things and what matters most in a truly sustainable economy is the balance between current consumption and future investment. The heart is important and so is the brain, liver and stomach but when one grows out of all proportion to all the others---you might have cancer.

An article on The Examiner tells the harsh truth

"As usual, the numbers tell the whole story. According to the College Board in early 2009, total student loan borrowing more than doubled between 1998 and 2008. The numbers are staggering. We're talking about $85 billion in loans, as compared to $41 billion ten years ago.

Privately funded student loans have risen, too, from 7% in 1998 to 23% of all student loans in 2008. It makes for quite a brew for cash-strapped Americans this year, who are already saddled with unemployment and loss of income. Sallie Mae, for example, had a delinquency rate of 9.4% in Q3 2008, as compared to a rate of 8.5% just a year earlier.I'm willing to bet that rate gaps higher as the months go by.

The student loan market has been, is, and will be riddled with trouble. Expect higher default rates, as students can't pay back these loans."


Even more disturbing is that the real explosion of college costs have not been fully felt by people(which is why they exploded in the first place) because of government loans and subsidies. As that well runs dry-the reality will hit like a rock and real hard cost cuts and college closings will begin.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Pittsburgh's One Of The Strongest Housing Markets: But How Long Can It Last?


First the good news.

Business Week has ranked Pittsburgh as the nation's sixth strongest housing market.

"Methodology: The metros are ranked by the share of homes with rising values in the second quarter compared with the second quarter of 2008. The annual change is the year-over-year change in median values for the metro in Q2 compared with the same period last year. The quarterly change compares the second quarter with the first quarter. The ranking is based on Zillow.com's Q2 Home Value Index, which is the median "Zestimate" for a given geography for a given time period. The Zestimate™ is Zillow's estimated market value of a home. This figure is computed by taking many different data points from public records and entering them in a proprietary formula."

Obviously, this is a game of relative performance since many of these markets also have modestly declining prices.

1 Boulder, Colorado
2 Spartanburg, South Carolina
3 New Orleans, Louisiana
4 Binghamton, New York
5 Fayetteville, North Carolina
6 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
7 Little Rock, Arkansas
8 Gainesville, Georgia
9 Burlington, North Carolina
10 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

The first thing that stands out is that very few of these are major metropolitan areas, which gives one some idea how broad and damaging the housing bubble was. Another feature common to most is that two of them, Oklahoma City and Little Rock are State Capitals and colleges and universities play a big role in their economies. The Fayetteville, North Carolina area is home to Fort Bragg and Pope Air Force base as well as three colleges.

One thing we should have all learned from the bubble was that trends that look like they can't go on forever, usually don't.





As, to the Meds side, things might look even worse.

There are many, many positive things to report about Pittsburgh and many great opportunities here which I will try to touch on in another post. Even so, we need to be aware of our real position.